Gault was president and chief executive officer of Americold Logistics. Prior to joining Americold Logistics, Mr. Prior to that, Mr.
Consistent with this view, we believe that there are four major potentially secular changes that all investment professionals must consider: The good news is that many of our highest conviction investment themes forincluding the ongoing slowdown in global trade, had already begun to capture this sea change in macro and geopolitical trends.
We also believe that Real Assets, particularly those with yield and growth, can prosper in the macro backdrop that we envision. Meanwhile, we are now balanced in our outlook on Equities versus Credit, but in both asset classes, we continue to suggest selling Simplicity and buying Complexity.
Overall, though, we do not lose sight of the fact that we are undergoing a paradigm shift, and often these types of regime changes do not always transition smoothly. As a result, we maintain our long-held approach of seeking to monetize aggressively the periodic dislocations that inevitably occur in a world of increasing geopolitical uncertainty and macro instability.
Kkr real estate research paper here we are.
As we look ahead intowe think that we are at a major inflection point across the global capital markets. Thereafter, central banks began to overcompensate for this structural downturn in wage inflation by inflating prices of financial assets, with the explosive surge in monetary stimulus that occurred in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis only exacerbating this trend Exhibit 4.
Data as at November 15, Many governments also promoted fiscal austerity, multilateral trade and aggressive monetary stimulus.
Brexit vote and U. Specifically, many nations are definitely now viewing trade and foreign investment from a more nationalist perspective, fiscal austerity is being replaced by stimulus via lower taxes and infrastructure spend, while key industries such as the Energy and Financial Services sectors are likely to be deregulated.
Somewhat ironically, both the U. However, in absolute terms, it has been subpar compared to history and it has been wildly lopsided in terms of income dispersion. Not surprisingly, working citizens around the globe, particularly in the developed markets, are now tired of paying for a financial crisis that they feel they did not create and of the effects of extreme monetary policy i.
They also want growth in real incomes and benefits for their families, including education, healthcare, and retirement savings.
All these influences have coalesced to create what we believe is a paradigm shift across the global capital markets. They are as follows: Fiscal policies are now favored over monetary ones to stimulate growth Deregulation over reregulation Domestic agendas take precedence over global ones Heightened volatility spills over from the currency markets to the interest rate markets Consistent with this view, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop will likely be shifting from a disinflationary, slower growth environment towards a reflationary-directed one with less onerous near-term banking regulation and fiscal targets.
We note that the Producer Price Index PPI in China — which will account for one-third of total global growth in — has turned positive after 54 months of being negative. In our view, this shift towards more reflationary policies by many growth-starved countries around the world is still largely an aspirational one, offset in many instances by slowing trade, poor demographics, weak productivity, and heavy debt burdens.
As such, we think that the cross-currents of near-term reflationary stimulus juxtaposed against the aforementioned structural macro headwinds likely mean more volatility lies ahead for investors again in In particular, we expect to see elevated and sustained volatility extend beyond the currency markets to include — among other things — global interest rates markets in Exhibit 5 Data as at December 31, While we did not explicitly forecast either Brexit or a Trump presidency, we do take some comfort in our investment process, as many of our highest conviction investment themes in the second half of had already begun to capture this sea change in macro and geopolitical sentiment.
See Section II for full details, but we now actually have higher conviction about the following six macro themes that we have been espousing for some time: We still strongly believe that long-term rates achieved their lows immediately after Brexit, suggesting that stocks and bonds may not be as positively correlated in the future The gap between Simplicity and Complexity is too wide and will likely reverse in the coming quarters We remain cautious on global trade, favoring instead more domestic-oriented stories, particularly in EM The U.Zacks is the leading investment research firm focusing on stock research, analysis and recommendations.
Gain free stock research access to stock . A recent trip to China again reminded my colleague Frances Lim and me why so many investors now consider China the ‘epicenter’ of global macro trends.
In addition to accounting for nearly one-third of the global growth, the country is also in a heated trade dispute with the United States. Without question, it is not sitting idle, and we saw visible signs of change in both monetary and. Our team has more than years of experience as investors, operator, advisors and entrepeneurs.
We pioneered successful corporate venture investing. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a real estate investment trust that primarily originates, invests in, acquires and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage backed securities and other commercial real estate-related debt investments.
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